How do you see the history of your own country in this way? If we think back to the earlier history of the region - the growing role of the PLO in the country the end of the Eisenhower Doctrine, which meant maybe the US would not intervene the prior conflict in 1958 ongoing differences in birth rates with more Muslims being born - wasn’t it, in a sense, actually fairly predictable and not a black swan? Historically, a very basic question: on page 7 of The Black Swan, you mention the 1975 Lebanese Civil War as having been a black swan of sorts.
Just to be clear, as always, this is the conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb I want to have, not the one that you want to have. First, he and I will converse, and then he will talk with Bryan Caplan. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been gracious enough to agree to this dual event.
I’m reminded of the words of the Hall of Famer Ernie Banks from Chicago, who used to always say, “Let’s play two,” when there was the possibility of a doubleheader. ĬOWEN: We’re very honored today to have with us the great Nassim Nicholas Taleb. If you notice an error, please send us an email. This transcript has been edited for clarity.
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